全球石油市场的供需关系天平似乎将进一步转向。受地缘政治因素和OPEC+主动减产等因素影响， 原油产能短期内正在回落，与此同时需求端随着央行降息预期和经济复苏前景被看好。机构投资者正在以四年来最快的速度做多石油，而油价上涨可能对央行和大选造成潜在影响。

原油经纪商PVM Oil Associates高级市场分析师瓦尔加（Tamas Varga）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，由于乌克兰无人机的持续袭击，俄罗斯炼油厂利用率大幅下降，不可避免地影响了该国的产品出口。同时全球经济前景更加光明，中国工厂和零售销售数据有所改善，美国石油库存也回到了历史均值下方。他认为，油价持续反弹将加剧各国央行降息的不确定性。

利好齐聚多头大举加仓

根据洲际交易所ICE和美国商品期货委员会CFTC最新公布的持仓报告，在截至3月19日的一周，包括对冲基金在内的机构在与石油价格挂钩的六种最重要的期货和期权合约累计净买入相当于1.4亿桶的石油。

根据历史统计数据，这是2019年12月以来的新高。其中WTI原油增加5700万桶、布伦特原油增加5500万桶，两者占到总买盘的3/4。目前，所有六份合约的合计净持仓量已增至6.41亿桶，是去年12月中旬近期低位2.07亿桶的3倍。

机构的乐观情绪与地缘政治紧张局势和俄乌冲突有关，而莫斯科进一步明确为实现OPEC+目标而减产等因素也引发了对未来原油供应可能收紧的担忧。据报道，美国上周敦促乌克兰停止对俄罗斯能源基础设施的无人机袭击，因为担心这会推高全球油价。StoneX能源团队在本周发布客户报告中表示，袭击已使俄罗斯炼油厂的产能暂时减少约40万桶/日。

与此同时，俄罗斯政府近日下令油气公司在第二季度控制石油产量，以确保在6月底前实现900万桶/日的产量目标。本月早些时候，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克（Alexander Novak）表示，俄罗斯将与OPEC+成员国和盟国协调，在第二季度将石油产量和出口再削减47.1万桶/日。

瓦尔加向第一财经表示，在过去两个月的大部分时间里，乌克兰无人机袭击给俄罗斯石油基础设施带来的影响正在加剧。现在，俄罗斯政府将国内供应视为优先事项，对能源产品出口产生不利影响。

媒体援引消息人士提供的数据显示，俄罗斯计划4月、5月和6月的石油产量分别比3月下降约3.6%、4.1%和4.9%。4月份将额外减产35万桶/日，出口将从3月份的水平减少12.1万桶/日。5月份，日产量将减少40万桶，出口量将再减少7.1万桶。

瓦尔加认为，沙特的不懈努力使得OPEC+减产延长至二季度末，在合规性一度面临挑战后，未来的产量数据将证明俄罗斯与其他成员国对一致行动承诺的履行程度。随着协议期限临近，夏季是重要的能源消费窗口，OPEC+届时将如何调整生产计划存在很多选择。

夏季消费高峰通胀隐忧将至

随着全球供应和经济形势的变化，机构也在调整对能源市场的看法。欧佩克在其月度报告中维持对2024年和2025年石油需求增长的预测不变，预计今年的需求将增长220万桶/日，2025年将增长180万桶/日。在供应方面，全球产量预计将增长110万桶/日，较2月份的预测略有下调。

国际能源署IEA预计，第一季度全球石油需求将以每天170万桶的速度增长，略高于2月预测，这得益于美国前景的改善，以及为避开红海而被迫走更长路线的船只燃料消耗增加。同时全球供应量将增加80万桶至1.029亿桶，此前的预期是1.038亿桶/日。

摩根士丹利近日发布报告预计，由于供需平衡趋紧，布伦特原油将在第三季度达到每桶90美元。“我们预计第二季度的适度供应赤字将在第三季度扩大。”报告称。

值得注意的是，能源价格可能成为降息的不确定因素。第一财经记者注意到，近两个月来，美国通胀指标有所回升。随着国际油价年内涨幅扩大至10%，更高的汽油账单增加了美国通胀的风险。在今年11月的总统选举之前，这将成为民主党和共和党对决的关键话题。

美国能源信息署EIA表示，全美原油库存已经回落到近五年季节平均水平以下2%。钻井平台数量也在回落，贝克休斯公司上周报告称，美国活跃的石油钻井平台数量降至509个，近一年减少近18%，资本纪律、成本等因素让企业放慢了本土开采的步伐。

如今美国本土成品油价格正在悄然上涨，目前徘徊于近半年高位3.5美元。根据美国汽车协会的预测，考虑到夏季旅行需求增加、燃料库存下降以及全球炼油厂面临的多重问题。今年夏天的油价有望攀升至2022年夏天以来的最高点，达到每加仑4美元。美国汽车协会发言人格拉登（Devin Gladden）表示，加油站的涨价可能会迫使美国人改变生活方式，并成为11月总统大选的焦点。

瓦尔加向第一财经表示，90美元可能是油价的短期目标，尚不具备大幅突破的条件。他给出了三个理由，首先，OPEC+目前保留着大量的闲置产能，如果油价持续上涨，可能推动各国在6月调整减产计划，从而打破市场的边际平衡。其次是通胀卷土重来可能引发央行货币政策的反馈，从而打压需求和经济，最后是大选因素，拜登政府谋求连任，肯定不会对国内燃料价格坐视不管。

The balance of supply and demand in the global oil market looks set to shift further. Affected by geopolitical factors and OPEC+ initiative to reduce production and other factors, crude oil production capacity is falling in the short term, at the same time, the demand side with the central bank's interest rate cut expectations and economic recovery prospects are optimistic. Institutional investors are going long oil at the fastest pace in four years, and rising prices could have potential implications for central banks and elections.

Tamas Varga, senior market analyst at crude Oil broker PVM Oil Associates, said in an interview with First Financial reporter that due to the continued attacks of Ukrainian drones, the utilization rate of Russian refineries has dropped sharply, inevitably affecting the country's product exports. Meanwhile, the global economic outlook has brightened, with Chinese factory and retail sales data improving and U.S. oil inventories back below historical averages. He believes that the continued rebound in oil prices will increase the uncertainty of central banks to cut interest rates.

Bullish gathering bulls to add large positions

In the week ended March 19, institutions including hedge funds bought the equivalent of 140 million barrels of oil in the six most important futures and options contracts linked to oil prices, according to the latest position reports from ICE and the CFTC.

According to historical statistics, this is a new high since December 2019. WTI added 57 million barrels and Brent added 55 million barrels, accounting for three-quarters of the total buying. Combined net positions across all six contracts have now increased to 641 million barrels, three times the recent low of 207 million barrels in mid-December.

The agency's optimism is linked to geopolitical tensions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while Moscow's further clarity on production cuts to meet OPEC+ targets has also raised concerns about a possible tightening of crude oil supplies in the future. Last week, the United States reportedly urged Ukraine to stop drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, fearing they would drive up global oil prices. The StoneX Energy team said in a client note published this week that the attacks have temporarily reduced the capacity of Russian refineries by about 400,000 barrels per day.

At the same time, the Russian government recently ordered oil and gas companies to curb oil production in the second quarter to ensure that the production target of 9 million barrels per day is met by the end of June. Earlier this month, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia would coordinate with OPEC+ members and Allies to cut oil production and exports by another 471,000 barrels per day in the second quarter.

Varga told China Business News that the impact of drone strikes in Ukraine on Russia's oil infrastructure has been intensifying for most of the past two months. Now, the Russian government sees domestic supply as a priority, adversely affecting the export of energy products.

According to data provided by sources quoted by the media, Russia plans to reduce oil production in April, May and June by about 3.6%, 4.1% and 4.9%, respectively, compared with March. An additional 350,000 BPD will be cut in April, and exports will be reduced by 121,000 BPD from March levels. In May, production will fall by 400,000 barrels a day and exports by another 71,000 barrels a day.

Varga believes that Saudi Arabia's unremitting efforts to extend the OPEC+ production cut until the end of the second quarter, after a period of compliance challenges, future production data will prove the extent of Russia and other members of the commitment to concerted action. As the deal's deadline approaches and the summer is an important energy consumption window, there are many options for how OPEC+ will adjust its production schedule then.

Inflation worries loom at the peak of summer spending

As global supply and economic conditions change, institutions are also adjusting their views on the energy market. In its monthly report, Opec kept its forecast for oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 unchanged, expecting demand to grow by 2.2 million BPD this year and 1.8 million BPD in 2025. On the supply side, global production is expected to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day, a slight downward revision from the February forecast.

The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to grow at a rate of 1.7 million barrels a day in the first quarter, slightly higher than its February forecast, helped by an improving outlook in the United States and increased fuel consumption by ships forced to take longer routes to avoid the Red Sea. At the same time, global supply will increase by 800,000 barrels to 102.9 million barrels per day, compared with the previous forecast of 103.8 million barrels per day.

Morgan Stanley recently issued a report predicting that Brent crude oil will reach $90 a barrel in the third quarter due to the tight supply and demand balance. "We expect the modest supply deficit in the second quarter to widen in the third quarter." "The report said.

It is worth noting that energy prices could become a wild card for interest rate cuts. The first financial reporter noted that in the past two months, the inflation indicator in the United States has rebounded. Higher gasoline bills increase the risk of inflation in the United States, as international oil prices have expanded to 10 percent this year. It will be a key topic in the showdown between Democrats and Republicans ahead of this November's presidential election.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. crude oil inventories have fallen back to 2 percent below the five-year seasonal average. The rig count is also retreating, with Baker Hughes reporting last week that the number of active oil RIGS in the United States fell to 509, down nearly 18 percent in the past year, as capital discipline, costs and other factors have slowed the pace of domestic drilling.

Now domestic oil prices are quietly rising, currently hovering near a six-month high of $3.50. Considering increased demand for summer travel, declining fuel inventories and multiple issues facing refiners worldwide, according to AAA's forecast. Gas prices this summer are on track to climb to their highest point since the summer of 2022, reaching $4 a gallon. Aaa spokesman Devin Gladden said higher prices at the pump could force Americans to change their lifestyles and become a focus of the November presidential election.

Varga told First Finance that $90 May be a short-term target for oil prices, and there are no conditions for a significant break. He gave three reasons, first, OPEC+ currently retains a large amount of spare capacity, and if prices continue to rise, it could push countries to adjust production cuts in June, thus upsetting the marginal balance of the market. Second, a resurgence of inflation could trigger feedback on central bank monetary policy, which would weigh on demand and the economy, and finally, there is the election factor, and the Biden administration, seeking re-election, will certainly not sit idly by domestic fuel prices.