基于模糊综合评价法的LNG储气调峰项目投资风险评估
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摘要:摘要LNG储气调峰项目能够有效地保障民商以及工业企业的用气,尤其在采暖期的用气高峰时段起到有效的调峰作用,具备较高的社会效益,但其建设运营时需投入大量的资金,具有一定的风险性。为了评估LNG储气调峰项目投资风险,基于利益相关者理论,结合LNG储气调峰项目的特点,..
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摘要LNG储气调峰项目能够有效地保障民商以及工业企业的用气,尤其在采暖期的用气高峰时段起到有效的调峰作用,具备较高的社会效益,但其建设运营时需投入大量的资金,具有一定的风险性。为了评估LNG储气调峰项目投资风险,基于利益相关者理论,结合LNG储气调峰项目的特点,从政策、经济、财务、市场、技术设备、工程建设及运营、不可抗力七个维度建立了风险指标体系。通过采用层次分析法与熵权法结合的组合权重法确定各指标权重,利用模糊综合评价法建立了风险评价模型,以雅安市某LNG储气调峰项目为例进行实证分析,最后根据评价结果针对性地提出风险控制措施。研究结果表明:①构建LNG储气调峰项目投资决策风险指标体系时应遵循客观性原则、完整性原则、有效性原则及可度量性原则;②雅安市某LNG项目投资风险等级属于中风险,其中政治风险、不可抗力风险属于低风险,财务风险属于较低风险,市场风险、技术设备风险、工程建设及运营风险属于中风险,经济风险属于较高风险;③评价结果与该储气调峰项目实际情况进行对比分析,验证了LNG储气调峰项目投资决策风险评价指标体系和评价模型的科学性、合理性和可操作性。Projects on LNG gas storage and peak shaving can ensure the gas demand of civil and commercial as well as industrial enterprises with effect.Especially they exert an active peak-shaving impression in the peak natural-gas season during heating period.The projects boast great social benefits,but their construction and operation need large investment and also face certain risks.So,combined with project characteristics,a risk index system was established to eva luate their investment risks from seven aspects of policy,economy,finance,market,technical equipment,engineering construction and operation,and force majeure based on stakeholder theory.Then,the weight of each index was determined through a com⁃pound weight method according to both analytic hierarchy method and entropy weight method.And a model to eva luate the risks was built by using the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method.In addition,case study was conducted by taking an LNG gas storage and peak shaving project in Ya'an city as an example.Finally,some risk-control measures were made.Results show that(i)the principles of objectivity,integrity,effectiveness and measurability should be followed when con⁃structing the risk index system for investment decision-making of LNG gas storage and peak shaving projects;(ii)the level of investment risks in the Ya'an project is medium,among which political and force majeure risks belong to low level,low⁃er financial risks,medium risks in market,technical equipment,and engineering construction and operation,as well as high economic risks,respectively;and(iii)compared with actuality,the eva luation results verify both risk eva luation index system and eva luation model in scientific nature,rationality and operability at the LNG gas storage and peak shaving proj⁃ects. 关键词LNG 储气调峰 投资风险 风险管理 模糊综合评价法LNG Gas storage and peak shaving Investment risk Risk management Fuzzy comprehensive assessment method |
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