美国天然气价格中长期或将呈现上涨趋势
责任编辑:cnlng    浏览:82次    时间: 2024-06-25 13:33:37    | 来源:中国石油报 作者:侯明扬   

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摘要:自2006年以来,受益于水平井钻井和水力压裂等技术在页岩气开发中取得的实质性突破,美国天然气产量重新回归增长轨迹。2011年后,美国页岩油产量持续攀升,二叠纪盆地等页岩油产区伴生气产量快速增长,既扩大了美国天然气的整体生产规模,也显著降低了美国天然气的单..

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自2006年以来,受益于水平井钻井和水力压裂等技术在页岩气开发中取得的实质性突破,美国天然气产量重新回归增长轨迹。2011年后,美国页岩油产量持续攀升,二叠纪盆地等页岩油产区伴生气产量快速增长,既扩大了美国天然气的整体生产规模,也显著降低了美国天然气的单位生产成本。

从产量的角度看,根据美国能源信息署(EIA)统计,2023年,美国天然气产量超过1万亿立方米,较2006年5010亿立方米的产量翻了一番。其中,页岩气产量占比约为76.4%。

从成本的角度看,美国天然气开发的成本在不同地区间差距较大。譬如,二叠纪盆地等页岩油产区的伴生气边际生产成本接近于零,阿巴拉契亚等低成本产区的天然气完全成本在2至2.5美元/百万英热单位左右,海恩斯维尔、尤提卡等页岩油产区的生产完全成本则在2.5美元/百万英热单位以上。

从价格的角度看,美国天然气在2008年以后整体在较低价格区间内震荡波动。近10年内,除2014年、2021年和2022年外,路易斯安那州国家基准亨利中心(Henry Hub)的天然气现货价格在大部分时间内均低于3美元/百万英热单位,2023年更是仅为2.53美元/百万英热单位,接近自1997年以来的最低水平。

Since 2006, US natural gas production has returned to a growth trajectory, thanks to substantial breakthroughs in shale gas development, such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Since 2011, US shale oil production has continued to rise, and the associated gas production in shale oil producing areas such as the Permian Basin has increased rapidly, which has not only expanded the overall scale of US natural gas production, but also significantly reduced the unit production cost of US natural gas.

From a production perspective, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2023, the United States produced more than 1 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, more than double the 501 billion cubic meters produced in 2006. Among them, shale gas production accounted for about 76.4%.

From a cost perspective, the cost of natural gas development in the United States varies greatly by region. For example, the marginal production cost of associated gas in shale oil plays such as the Permian Basin is close to zero, the full cost of natural gas in low-cost areas such as Appalachia is around $2 to $2.50 per million British thermal units, and the full cost of production in shale oil plays such as Haynesville and Utica is above $2.50 per million British thermal units.

From a price point of view, US natural gas has fluctuated in a lower price range as a whole since 2008. Natural gas spot prices at the Henry Hub, Louisiana's national benchmark, have been below $3 per million British thermal units for most of the past decade, with the exception of 2014, 2021 and 2022, and only $2.53 per million British thermal units in 2023, near the lowest level since 1997.


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