本报告期（2024年4月3日至2024年4月9日），环渤海动力煤价格指数报收于712元/吨，环比下行2元/吨。

从环渤海六个港口交易价格的采集情况看，本期共采集样本单位78家，样本数量为324条。5500K热值（硫分：0.6%-1%）的现货综合价格为813元/吨，长协综合价格为701元/吨，现货与长协的计算比例为1:9。从计算结果看，本报告期24个规格品中，价格下行的有13个，跌幅均为5元/吨。

分析认为，清明节过后，市场整体交投活性偏低，下游客户观望为主，北上采购意愿较低，市场交投陷入僵持状态，现货价格逐步下探。从综合结果看，本期环渤海动力煤综合价格依旧延续跌势。

一、产地市场接连调价缓解出货压力。受整体需求不足影响，主产区销售陷入出货困难局面，市场交易情绪低落，而大型煤企大幅调降外购价格也释放了价格再度下行信号，有库存积压的煤矿通过调价缓解库存压力，长协拉运成为产区主要的出货途径。周期末端开始，部分煤矿具有减产挺价行为，一定程度延缓了产地市场价格下降趋势。

二、大秦线检修未对北方港口库存产生不利影响。尽管进入4月份大秦线春季集中修正式展开，晋陕蒙地区煤炭外运受到一定的限制，但下游采购需求不足，沿线配套港口库存水平未出现明显下降，港口市场供需格局趋于宽松。秦皇岛煤炭网数据显示，截至4月10日，大秦线配套港口（秦皇岛港、曹妃甸港区、京唐港区）合计库存整体运行在2100万吨左右，基本与集中修前的库存水平接近，北方库存的充足对价格形成顶部压力。

三、终端企业采购向下议价能力不断增强。一方面，一季度基建、房地产项目开工进度缓慢，工业用电需求不及预期，另一方面，风能及太阳能等清洁能源发电情况转好，对火电形成有效替代，东南沿海省份火电机组负荷率相对偏低。加之，进入4月以来，电厂库存已高于去年同期9%以上，仅维持长协拉运即可满足刚需，北上采购意愿偏低，少量现货采购的向下议价能力不断增强，对价格形成下压。

后续来看，现货交易价格临近整数关卡，销售端挺价意愿增强，周期尾端价格下行底部具有一定支撑，但下游整体需求依旧偏弱，使得价格仍有进一步下行风险。

沿海航运市场方面，秦皇岛海运煤炭交易市场发布的海运煤炭运价指数（OCFI）显示，本报告期（2024年4月3日至2024年4月9日），沿海煤炭运价先抑后扬。截至2024年4月9日，运价指数报收591.30点，与4月2日相比上行16.79点，涨幅为2.92%。

具体到部分主要船型和航线，2024年4月9日与2024年4月2日相比，秦皇岛至广州航线5-6万吨船舶的煤炭平均运价报33.3元/吨，环比下行0.3元/吨；秦皇岛至上海航线4-5万吨船舶的煤炭平均运价报16.4元/吨，环比上行0.4元/吨；秦皇岛至江阴航线4-5万吨船舶的煤炭平均运价报18.7元/吨，环比上行1.2元/吨。

During the reporting period (April 3, 2024 to April 9, 2024), the Bohai Rim thermal coal price index closed at 712 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous quarter.

From the collection of transaction prices of six ports around the Bohai Sea, a total of 78 sample units were collected in this period, and the number of samples was 324. The spot comprehensive price of 5500K calorific value (sulfur content: 0.6%-1%) is 813 yuan/ton, and the long association comprehensive price is 701 yuan/ton, and the calculation ratio of spot and long Association is 1:9. From the calculation results, of the 24 specifications in the reporting period, the price fell 13, with a drop of 5 yuan/ton.

The analysis believes that after the Qingming Festival, the overall trading activity of the market is low, downstream customers mainly wait and see, and the intention to purchase north is low, the market trading is in a stalemate, and the spot price is gradually falling. According to the comprehensive results, the comprehensive price of thermal coal around the Bohai Sea in this period still continues to decline.

First, the origin market has been adjusted to ease the pressure on shipments. Affected by the overall lack of demand, sales in the main producing areas fell into a difficult situation of shipment, market trading sentiment was low, and large coal companies significantly reduced the purchase price also released the price again downward signal, there is a backlog of coal mines through price adjustment to alleviate inventory pressure, long association transport has become the main way of shipment in the producing area. At the beginning of the end of the cycle, some coal mines have the behavior of reducing production and supporting prices, which has delayed the downward trend of market prices in producing areas to a certain extent.

Second, the maintenance of the Daqin Line has not had an adverse impact on the inventory of northern ports. Although the spring centralized repair of the Daqin Line was officially launched in April, the export of coal in the Jinshan-Mongolian region was limited to a certain extent, but the downstream procurement demand was insufficient, the inventory level of supporting ports along the line did not decline significantly, and the supply and demand pattern of the port market tended to be loose. Qinhuangdao coal network data show that as of April 10, the total inventory of the supporting ports of the Qinhuangdao Line (Qinhuangdao Port, Caofeidian port area, Jingtang Port area) is about 21 million tons, which is basically close to the inventory level before the centralized repair, and the sufficient inventory in the north forms a top pressure on the price.

Third, the downward bargaining power of terminal enterprises has been continuously enhanced. On the one hand, the construction progress of infrastructure and real estate projects in the first quarter is slow, and industrial electricity demand is less than expected, on the other hand, the clean energy generation situation such as wind and solar energy is getting better, forming an effective alternative to thermal power, and the load rate of thermal power units in the southeast coastal provinces is relatively low. In addition, since entering April, the power plant inventory has been more than 9% higher than the same period last year, only to maintain the long association to meet the demand, the northbound purchase intention is low, and the downward bargaining power of a small number of spot purchases has been increasing, which has formed a downward pressure on the price.

In the follow-up, the spot trading price is close to the integer level, the sales side is willing to increase the price, and the downward price at the end of the cycle has certain support, but the overall downstream demand is still weak, making the price still have further downside risks.

In terms of the coastal shipping market, the Qinhuangdao Maritime Coal Exchange market released the maritime coal freight index (OCFI), which shows that during the reporting period (April 3, 2024 to April 9, 2024), the coastal coal freight fell first and then rose. As of April 9, 2024, the freight index closed at 591.30 points, an increase of 16.79 points, or 2.92%, compared with April 2.

Specific to some major ship types and routes, compared with April 2, 2024, the average coal freight rate of 50,000-60,000 tons of ships on the Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou route was 33.3 yuan/ton on April 9, 2024, down 0.3 yuan/ton from the previous month; The average freight rate of coal for 40,000-50,000 tons of ships on the Qinhuangdao to Shanghai route was 16.4 yuan/ton, up 0.4 yuan/ton from the previous quarter; The average freight rate of coal for 40,000-50,000 tons of ships on the Qinhuangdao to Jiangyin route was 18.7 yuan/ton, up 1.2 yuan/ton from the previous quarter.