对以色列和真主党之间对抗加剧可能将其他产油国卷入这场冲突的担忧，对夏季需求强劲的预期，以及大西洋飓风季活动频繁的早期迹象，共同推动国际油价在下半年伊始走高；市场还在关注美国原油钻井平台数量减少的情况，这可能最终导致原油产量下降；今年下半年第一个交易日欧美原油期货上涨。周一(7月1日)纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油2024年8月期货结算价每桶83.38美元，比前一交易日上涨1.84美元，涨幅2.26%，交易区间81.38-83.64美元；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2024年9月期货结算价每桶86.60美元，比前一交易日上涨1.60美元，涨幅1.88%，交易区间84.85-86.88美元。

分析师预测第三季将出现石油供应短缺，因为夏季运输高峰和空调制冷需求将消耗燃料库存。美国能源信息署周五公布的数据，美国4月份石油产量和需求均创四个月新高，为油价提供支撑。美国能源信息署(EIA)周五发布的《石油供应月报》显示,4月份美国油田生产的原油日均1325万桶，为12月份以来的最高水平，环比增加7.2万桶。美国能源信息署衡量需求的原油和石油产品供应量在4月份上升至每日2000万桶,比3月份日均增加了13.1万桶,也是今年迄今为止的最高水平。瑞银分析师Giovanni Staunov在一份报告中称:“与美国能源信息署发布的月度报告《短期能源展望》相比，4月份石油日均需求量意外上调了近50万桶，而原油日产量增幅却没有那么高,这意味着4月份的市场供应更加紧张。

投资银行摩根大通预计，今年第三季度全球石油日均供应缺口为每天100万桶，8月份供应缺口将发展至日均190万桶。该投行预计布伦特 原油价格将在9月份达到每桶90美元。

Fears that the intensifying confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah could draw other oil producers into the conflict, expectations of strong summer demand, and early signs of an active Atlantic hurricane season combined to push international oil prices higher at the start of the second half of the year. The market is also watching for a decline in the U.S. oil rig count, which could eventually lead to lower crude production; European and American crude oil futures rose on the first trading day of the second half of this year. On Monday (July 1), West Texas Light crude oil for August 2024 on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $83.38 a barrel, up $1.84, or 2.26%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $81.38-83.64; Ice Brent crude for September 2024 settled at $86.60 a barrel, up $1.60, or 1.88%, from the previous session, trading in a range of $84.85 to $86.88.

Analysts are forecasting an oil supply shortage in the third quarter as peak summer shipping and air-conditioning cooling demand deplete fuel stocks. Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Friday showed U.S. oil production and demand both hit four-month highs in April, providing support to prices. The US Energy Information Administration's Monthly Petroleum Supply Report, released on Friday, showed that US oil fields produced 13.25 million barrels per day in April, the highest level since December and an increase of 72,000 barrels per day from the previous month. Supplies of crude oil and petroleum products, which the U.S. Energy Information Administration measures demand, rose to 20 million barrels a day in April, up 131,000 barrels a day from March and the highest level so far this year. Giovanni Staunov, an analyst at UBS, said in a note: "Compared to the Short-term Energy Outlook, a monthly report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil demand unexpectedly increased by nearly 500,000 barrels per day in April, while crude oil production did not increase by as much, which means that the market was tighter in April."

Jpmorgan, the investment bank, expects the global supply gap to grow from 1m barrels a day a day in the third quarter to 1.9m b/d in August. The investment bank expects Brent to hit $90 a barrel in September.