高盛银行近日预测，美国主要产油盆地的产量增长今年将放缓，但美国仍将占非欧佩克产油国石油产量增长的60%。数据显示，二叠纪盆地今年的产量预计从去年的52万桶/日大幅降至34万桶/日。

高盛银行预计，美国今年石油总产量增幅将从一年前的超过100万桶/日降至50万桶/日。高盛银行发表文章称，“虽然技术和效率的提高使得二叠纪盆地成为2020年以来美国石油产量增长的主要来源，但二叠纪盆地正走向成熟，不断恶化的地质状况将影响未来的产量”。高盛银行将二叠纪盆地地质状况的恶化归咎于多年来的密集勘探和生产。

高盛银行表示，与去年4月的高点相比，二叠纪盆地目前每周在用钻机数量下降了近15%，与2018年~2019年的平均水平相比下降了30%，下降趋势今年还将继续。2026年底前，在用钻机数量可能从目前的309部减少到不足300部。但随着行业整合增加高产钻机的占比，以及技术进步，每部钻机产量将继续增长。

高盛银行能源经济学家尤利娅·格雷斯比解释称，二叠纪盆地油井投产一个月后会达到产量峰值，但之后产量将迅速下降，3~4年内基本平稳。

高盛银行表示，二叠纪盆地的石油对不同区间的油价表现出了不同的敏感性。当WTI价格保持在每桶50美元以上时，价格下降10%只会导致二叠纪盆地产量平均下降1.3%；如果WTI价格低于每桶50美元，同样10%的价格下跌会导致二叠纪盆地产量下降4%。

Goldman Sachs recently predicted that production growth in major U.S. oil-producing basins will slow this year, but the United States will still account for 60% of non-OPEC oil production growth. Production in the Permian Basin is expected to fall sharply this year to 340,000 BPD from 520,000 BPD last year, according to the data.

Goldman Sachs, a bank, expects total U.S. oil production growth to slow to 500,000 b/d this year from more than 1 million b/d a year ago. According to Goldman Sachs, "While technology and efficiency gains have made the Permian Basin the primary source of U.S. oil production growth since 2020, the Permian Basin is maturing and deteriorating geology will impact future production." Goldman Sachs, a bank, blames years of intensive exploration and production for the deterioration of the Permian Basin's geology.

According to Goldman Sachs, the weekly rig count in the Permian Basin is now down nearly 15 percent from last April's high and 30 percent from the 2018-19 average, and the downward trend will continue this year. By the end of 2026, the number of RIGS in use could fall from the current 309 to fewer than 300. But as industry consolidation increases the share of high-production RIGS and technology advances, production per rig will continue to grow.

Yulia Grigsby, an energy economist at Goldman Sachs, explains that Permian Wells peak a month after production begins, but then decline rapidly before flattening out for three to four years.

According to Goldman Sachs, oil in the Permian Basin has shown different sensitivities to prices in different ranges. When WTI prices remain above $50 per barrel, a 10% decline in prices only results in an average 1.3% decline in Permian Basin production; If WTI prices were below $50 per barrel, the same 10% price drop would result in a 4% drop in Permian production.